Anything might be a different-different. Does it matter if it has worked out somewhere else? Will you really be at ease or will you think of something else that is different-different? What if this is where Italy was and things appear to be working out fine. It has only been 13 years since they increased austerity measures? Honestly I don't know how an Italian retiree is doing today or in what markets an Italian retiree would be investing. Is it iShares MSCI Italy ETF? Is it in a total market fund? Maybe they are investing in US equities and are killing it today. Maybe an Italian boglehead can chime in. I think that is why I keep some international in my portfolio.Yes and no. Yes, we always have something we've never had before. Debt that can't or won't be dealt is a hard problem to roll back. This might be "different-different". Which is why I'm looking for (an) example(s) of something like the current situation that did or did not work out.Isn't it always different? We have never had Y2k before. We have never had GFC before. We have never had Volker before. There will always be something that will melt our highs. And then, over time, we will recover because business must continue. The question you ask, will the recovery take longer than before and will the sequence of those early return be worse than 1966. No one knows. All I can tell you is that business will go on unless we are all dead which at that point, it doesn't really matter.Actually, I did not answer the question, but just took a guess. In all seriousness, do we know of an economy where 4% SWR worked with high debt, like today? I honestly think that the current situation is truly "it's different this time" and would love to see a situation where we had this before and things worked out.The answer is perhaps it is. There are no guarantees, especially with enough nukes on hair trigger alert to induce a decade long nuclear Winter. But since you answered it, I didn't think you needed me to.
How about a situation where the debt to GDP starts at 130% and the demographics are such that it gets worse (unlike after WW2, which had 120%, where the demographics were favorable)? Perhaps THAT is a reason we can't have a future that's worse than the past.
You stated a lot of good food for thought, while doing a great job of tip-toeing away from the still-unanswered question.
All I can tell you it is always different-different and tomorrow's different will most definitely be different than the different from the past. But business will move on and profits will be made. We will enjoy those profits and buy steak with them.
Statistics: Posted by EnjoyIt — Tue Apr 09, 2024 4:47 pm — Replies 305 — Views 21677
